Deep-Time Phylogenetic Clustering of Extinctions in an Evolutionarily Dynamic Clade (Early Jurassic Ammonites)

Conservation biologists and palaeontologists are increasingly investigating the phylogenetic distribution of extinctions and its evolutionary consequences. However, the dearth of palaeontological studies on that subject and the lack of methodological consensus hamper our understanding of that major evolutionary phenomenon. Here we address this issue by (i) reviewing the approaches used to quantify the phylogenetic selectivity of extinctions and extinction risks; (ii) investigating with a high-resolution dataset whether extinctions and survivals were phylogenetically clustered among early Pliensbachian (Early Jurassic) ammonites; (iii) exploring the phylogenetic and temporal maintenance of this signal. We found that ammonite extinctions were significantly clumped phylogenetically, a pattern that prevailed throughout the 6.6 Myr-long early Pliensbachian interval. Such a phylogenetic conservatism did not alter--or may even have promoted--the evolutionary success of this major cephalopod clade. However, the comparison of phylogenetic autocorrelation among studies remains problematic because the notion of phylogenetic conservatism is scale-dependent and the intensity of the signal is sensitive to temporal resolution. We recommend a combined use of Moran's I, Pearson's ϕ and Fritz and Purvis' D statistics because they highlight different facets of the phylogenetic pattern of extinctions and/or survivals.